What Ursula’s Return Set Champ Promo’s Price Means for Lorcana
Oddly enough, the first Set Championships acted as the zenith of excitement for the game, driving some insane prices around a Stitch Promo that has since plummeted in value. Today, the Stitch Promo is going for under $400 and trending downwards. Even more telling about the current state of Lorcana Set Championships than Stitch’s drop in value, however, is the reduced value we are seeing for Ursula’s Return Set Championship promos. Clearly, Set Championships are not the unstoppable hype machine they once were. Here’s what it means for the game.
What is causing the decrease in value around Lorcana Set Championship promo?
As I predicted in my recap of Lorcana’s First Set Championships, the inflated value of Set Championship promos and excitement was not sustainable.
In evidence of this fact, the Ursula’s Return Store Championship promo is trending for well under $200, and that’s after only two weekends of Set Championships. Imagine howe much further that value will diminish after the full month is complete and all Ursula’s Return cards are available. Realistically, we could be looking at a promo card that will be worth less than $100.
Ursula’s Return Set Championship Promo
That’s only a fraction of the cost of what the Rock Star Stitch enchanted promo was worth in its heyday. And Ursula is only likely to go down in price from here.
Below, let’s look at the contributing factors as for what is causing the decreased in value around this Set Championship promo.
Lorcana is having a Bucky Problem
For anyone who has been to a Lorcana tournament or maybe played online lately, it’s pretty clear that set five’s meta is not the healthiest we have seen. This is thanks largely to a certain squirrel that has gained so much dominance that it has essentially broken the game, forcing Ravensburger themselves to nerf Bucky into obsoletion.
However, the changes don’t come into effect for tournament play except for Challenges until after Set Five comes out. This means that Store Championships are plagued with the static meta that is in stark contrast to the fun and varied meta we saw in Into the Inklands where a broad swath of decks were competitively viable.
Ursula’s Return was a somewhat underwhelming set
In additional to a less diverse meta, generally speaking, Ursula’s Return wasn’t as exciting as some of the other sets we’ve seen. While it’s not a bad set by any means, it introduced some serious problems into the meta thanks to new mechanics that interacted poorly with existing cards. Meanwhile, it just couldn’t compete with the grandness of Into the Inklands, which will likely go down as one of if not the best sets in Lorcana’s history.
As set championships are invariably tied to the set, it makes sense that a less popular set would see less excitement than a set championship for more popular expansions.
There are higher levels of competition now
The first set championships came at a unique time just before the real competitive level of play started (those being Lorcana Challenges). At the time, set championships were the best and really only way to flex your competitive Lorcana muscles. Today, however, a set championship promo pales in comparison to a Gold Brave Little Tailor Mickey and other prizes you can win from Challenges. Highly competitive players are chasing those sorts of prizes and bragging about those, which drives less excitement around the more local-centric competitions that Set Championships are.
There’s no way to play Lorcana online
As we wrote about in depth, Pixelborn – the fan made app that enabled us to play Lorcana with one another anytime, anywhere – faced its end mid-July. With its ending came a significant blow to the community. While not a death sentence by any means (Lorcana is still alive and well), it certainly made it harder for players to test their decks and strategies, and get excited about playing. This is not the biggest contributing factor to the decrease in enthusiasm driving prices down in Lorcana’s second run of set championships, but certainly it is a contributing factor.
What is the future of Lorcana Set Championships?
When I posted my observation and correct prediction about the plummeting value of Lorcana Set Championship promos to X, I got some pretty interesting feedback from others with strong opinions on the matter.
Responses were a mix of worry for the future of Set Championships, as well as optimism towards continued flourishing of it as a competitive competition. Elsewhere online plenty of debate is occurring regarding the depreciation in value of this set Championship’s promo versus the last. However, there are a few key takeaways I think we can all have from this experience.
First and foremost, despite the Ursula’s Return Set Championship Promo being a far cry in value from Rock Star Stitch, this price range is probably more accurate to what Set Promos should be. Remember, these are relatively widely available cards given out at moderately competitive events, not massive prizes handed out at thousand person tournaments. They will always hold decent value compared to most cards, but were never intended to be a money grabbing opportunity. With that in mind, here are my predictions for future Lorcana Set Championships.
Lorcana Set Championship attendance will continue to fluctuate based on external factors
First and foremost, I don’t see a linear trend in the future of Set Championship attendance. While it was clear that the hype around Into the Inklands wasn’t sustainable, it’s not so clear how things will evolve from here. My best guess is that they will vary depending depending on the collectibility of the card and the popularity of the set. Those will be the two biggest factors influencing Set Champ promo values moving forward. In reality, people liked the Rock Star Stitch promo better than the Ursula one. People liked Into the Inklands better than Ursula’s Return (generally speaking) and the meta was more fun. This is why Rock Star Stitch still has strong value today.
I doubt we’ll ever see price levels to the tune of what Rock Star Stitch drew again, but we could certainly see more valuable promos coming out of Set Championships in the future than Ursula’s Return.
Market price cooling does not signal Lorcana’s demise
Last but not least, I think it’s important to hit on one key point after a relatively critical commentary: the cooling in demand for Set Championship promos does not equate to Lorcana fizzling out as a TCG. TCGs go through ebbs-and-flows all the time based on a variety of factors, and what appears to be happening here is that we are in the more long-term sustainable part of the Lorcana hype cycle. During this period we will likely see continued growth for Lorcana, albeit not nearly the kind of explosive growth the game saw in its first year.
Hype cooling off around Lorcana promos in general simply shows a game that is maturing, not one that is in any danger of ending.
