The Stunning Decline of the First Edition Base Set Charizard

Nov 1

The Base Set First Edition Charizard used to be the gold standard and veritable most valuable Pokemon card. Now, it’s slipping in value, confusing collectors everywhere.

A few months ago, we compiled our first ever list of the most valuable Pokemon cards. At that time, the legendary Base Set Charizard was still the most valuable card on the ungraded market. Today, that’s changed, and it’s not even in the top ten. What exactly is going on? Was the Charizard Base set just a bubble?

Let’s take a look at the card’s value on the ungraded market overtime to get a sense for what’s going on with this legendary card, and also take a glimpse at how it is performing on the graded market for comparison. The two certainly mirror one another, raising serious questions about whether the gold standard of Pokemon cards is really worth the investment.

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What is going on with the 1st Edition Charizard’s Market Value?

Regardless if you are looking at the market value of this card from an ungraded standpoint or a PSA graded one, it’s quite clear that this card has been falling dramatically in value since the 2020 mid-pandemic hype wave that cause Pokemon cards to come to the foreground of pop culture trends.

What’s interesting about this card, however, is that it’s a rare example of the value of a first edition card performing less well on the ungraded card market than the unlimited version. In fact, the numbers really don’t seem to be adding up.

A few problems with taking TCGplayer price values entirely at face value:

TCGplayer factors in a lot of things into its market value price, including damaged cards. Because this is a pretty old card by now, there may be a dispraportionate number of damaged Charizard first edition base set cards lying around.

However, if it were the case of just a few outlying, damaged Charizards bringing the market value plummeting down, we wouldn’t be so confused about this card’s actual value. The real story, however is not that. In fact, there are several examples of near mint condition Base Set Charizard cards selling for less than $500.

October, 2023 has shown a disturbing trend in value for the 1st Edition Base Set Charizard

In October, TCGplayer lists two different sales for the Base Set First Edition Charizard that seem to prove that this card is not nearly as valuable as you might think.

On October 7, 2023, an ungraded, first edition, base set Charizard was reportedly sold for just $450.
Then again, on October 31, 2023, a second ungraded, first edition, base set Charizard was sold for $450.

Meanwhile, there are multiple occurrences of the Unlimted base set Charizard selling for over $1,000 for not even Near Mint condition.

2023 saw dramatic decreases in demand for 1st Edition Base Set Charizard on the graded card market

It’s very rare for pristine, gem mint Charizard to actually sell on the market (there are so few of them. However, WarGamer reported an auction happening for dramatically reduced rates from what we saw similar cards selling at during the height of the Pokemon craze, down to just $162,000 from the astounding $420,000 high for the same card.

Why is the first edition Charizard’s price so inconsistent on the secondary card market?

All of this info raises some very confusing questions that should probably be answered before choosing to invest in this particular card:

Are these high profile auctions influencing the rest of the market?
Why would the First Edition Charizard card be going for such low amounts right now on the secondary card market, while the unlimited edition fares so much better?
Is there some sort of market manipulation happening here?
Are there perhaps fake Charizard cards flooding the market?
Is now a good time to buy a first edition Charizard on the ungraded market?

Whatever the reason for this unfolding and strange situation, it seems that the Charizard first edition bubble is certainly over, and now may very well be a good time to pick up your own first edition, base set Charizard. However, if you are going to purchase a first edition base set Charizard, make sure its authenticated via TCGplayer Direct or Ebay’s authentication program so you know your money isn’t going to a scammer!

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